基于灰色关联度模型的区域滑坡敏感性评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

黄发明  汪洋  董志良  吴礼舟  郭子正  张泰丽 《地球科学》2019,44(2):664-676

数理统计和机器学习模型如支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)等,在区域滑坡敏感性评价中得到广泛的应用.但这些模型的建模过程往往较复杂,如在对机器学习进行训练和测试时难以选取合理的非滑坡栅格单元,而且有较多的模型参数需要确定.为提高滑坡敏感性评价建模的效率和精度,提出基于灰色关联度的敏感性评价模型.灰色关联度模型能有效计算各比较样本与参考样本之间的定量的关联度,具有建模过程简洁和评价精度高的优点,该模型目前在区域滑坡敏感性评价中的应用还没有引起研究人员的足够关注且有待进一步拓展.拟将灰色关联度模型用于浙江省飞云江流域南田—雅梅图幅(南田地区)的滑坡敏感性评价,并将得到的评价结果与SVM模型的敏感性评价结果作对比分析.结果显示,灰色关联度模型在高和极高敏感区的滑坡预测精度优于SVM模型,而在中等敏感区的滑坡预测精度略低于SVM模型;整体而言,灰色关联度模型对整个南田地区滑坡敏感性分布的预测精度略高于SVM模型.对两个模型建模过程的对比结果显示,灰色关联度模型建模较简单,具有比SVM模型更高的建模效率,为滑坡敏感性评价提供了一种新思路.  相似文献   

FeSO4对铬污染土的稳定特性及风险评价试验研究     

张亭亭  李江山  王平  薛强 《岩土力学》2019,40(10):3928-3936

采用硫酸亚铁（FeSO4）对铬污染土进行稳定化处理。选用浸出试验、Cr(VI)残留值试验和形态提取试验,研究了粒径和有机质对铬污染土稳定特性的影响规律。试验结果表明,粒径和有机质对铬污染土稳定特性有较大影响。粒径的减小可显著降低稳定土中Cr(VI)和总Cr的浸出浓度及稳定土中Cr(VI)的含量;当污染土粒径小于2 mm时,Fe(II)/Cr(VI)摩尔比为3,稳定土中Cr(VI)和总Cr的浸出浓度分别为4.68、8.9 mg/L,均低于我国《危险废弃物鉴别标准 浸出毒性鉴别》（GB/T5085.3－2007）的限值。有机质添加量的增加可明显降低稳定土中Cr(VI)和总Cr的浸出浓度及Cr(VI)的含量。当Fe(II)/Cr(VI)摩尔比为3时,有机质的添加量为5%,稳定土中Cr(VI)的含量为28.3 mg/kg,低于我国《土壤环境质量标准》（GB15618－2008）中工业和商业用地限值（30 mg/kg）;当有机质的添加量为10%时,稳定土中Cr(VI)的含量为4.8 mg/kg,低于居住用地限值（5 mg/kg）。形态提取试验结果表明：粒径的减小可降低弱酸提取态的铬含量,增加可还原态的铬含量,而对可氧化态和残渣态的铬含量影响不大;有机质可促使弱酸提取态、可还原态的铬转化为可氧化态的铬,而残渣态的铬变化不大。稳定土中铬从活性态向较稳定态转化,是铬稳定土稳定特性和环境风险变化的根本原因。  相似文献   

Heavy Oils and Oil Sands: Global Distribution and Resource Assessment     

LIU Zuodong  WANG Hongjun  Graham BLACKBOURN  MA Feng  HE Zhengjun  WEN Zhixing  WANG Zhaoming  YANG Zi  LUAN Tiansi  WU Zhenzhen 《《地质学报》英文版》2019,93(1):199-212

Gl obal recoverable resources of heavy oil and oil sands have been assessed by CNPC using a geology-based assessment method combined with the traditional volumetric method, spatial interpolation method, parametric-probability method etc. The most favourable areas for exploration have been selected in accordance with a comprehensive scoring system. The results show: (1) For geological resources, CNPC estimate 991.18 billion tonnes of heavy oil and 501.26 billion tonnes of oil sands globally, of which technically recoverable resources of heavy oil and oil sands comprise 126.74 billion tonnes and 64.13 billion tonnes respectively. More than 80% of the resources occur within Tertiary and Cretaceous reservoirs distributed across 69 heavy-oil basins and 32 oil-sands basins. 99% of recoverable resources of heavy oil and oil sands occur within foreland basins, passive continental-margin basins and cratonic basins. (2) Since residual hydrocarbon resources remain following large-scale hydrocarbon migration and destruction, heavy oil and oil sands are characterized most commonly by late hydrocarbon accumulation, the same basin types and source-reservoir conditions as for conventional hydrocarbon resources, shallow burial depth and stratabound reservoirs. (3) Three accumulation models are recognised, depending on basin type: degradation along slope; destruction by uplift; and migration along faults. (4) In addition to mature exploration regions such as Canada and Venezuela, the Volga-Ural Basin and the Pre-Caspian Basin are less well-explored and have good potential for oil-sand discoveries, and it is predicted that the Middle East will be an important region for heavy-oil development.  相似文献   

模糊马尔可夫预测法在空气质量评价中的应用     

方红 《辽宁气象》2008,24(1):60-62

将模糊综合评价及马尔可夫链同时运用到空气质量的评价中,可克服大气环境系统所固有的模糊性及随机性。通过1994—1998年芜湖市大气环境监测数据计算表明：不仅预测结果准确,而且由于应用了模糊数学方法,使得结果较为可信,且整个过程计算简单,是一种较适合的方法。  相似文献   

开滦苯加氢精制工程环境风险评价     

王绪鑫  ;徐新阳  ;张宇晨 《辽宁气象》2008,24(1):67-71

以某苯加氢精制工程为例,探讨了焦化行业环境风险评价方法;利用该项目所在地近3 a地面常规气象观测资料,分析了当地的污染气象特征;采用风险识别、源项分析、后果计算、风险评价等环境风险评价技术方法,筛选出主要风险因子并进行风险预测,采用多烟团模式并考虑气象因素进行风险计算。结果表明：污染事故发生后,苯类物质的地面浓度最大值为3 214 mg/m^3,位于距离事故发生源WNW方向约50 m处超标1 339倍,由此可知近距离污染严重;高浓度污染物主要集中在污染源附近,随着距离的延长,污染物浓度不断向下风向扩散,超标范围在6 km内。利用简化分析法,定量给出此项工程的最大可信事故风险值为7.6×10^-6/a,小于化工行业风险值8.33×10^-5/a,此工程风险值水平与同行业比较在可接受的范围内。  相似文献   

广西2007年气候特点及其影响评价   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

黄雪松  李艳兰 《气象研究与应用》2008,29(1):23-28

2007年,广西全区平均气温比常年偏高、平均降水量比常年偏少、平均日照时数比常年偏多。年内出现近十年少见的春季"倒春寒"以及暴雨洪涝、干旱、高温天气、热带气旋、强对流天气等天气气候事件。除干旱较常年偏重、高温天气较常年偏多外,其它灾害属正常到偏轻年份。气候对农业、旅游业的影响属正常稍好年景,对人体健康、交通运输、盐业的影响属偏好年景,对水电的影响属偏差年景。  相似文献   

构建一个经济-气候新模型评价气候变化对粮食产量的影响   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

丑洁明  叶笃正 《气候与环境研究》2006,11(3):347-353

将气候变化研究和农业经济研究相结合,构建了一个经济-气候新模型,用来评价全球气候变化对粮食产量影响的问题。提出在经济模型C-D生产函数中添加气候变化因子,建立一个新的评价模型,作为连接气候变化因素和经济变化因素的桥梁,并对该模型的性能及合理性进行了初步的模拟和验证。  相似文献   

A three-tiered approach to participatory vulnerability assessment in the Solomon Islands   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ioan Fazey  Mike Kesby  Anna Evely  Ian Latham  Daniel Wagatora  Jude-Edward Hagasua  Mark S. Reed  Mike Christie 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(4):713-728

Greater recognition of the seriousness of global environmental change has led to an increase in research that assesses the vulnerability of households, communities and regions to changing environmental or economic conditions. So far, however, there has been relatively little attention given to how assessments can be conducted in ways that help build capacity for local communities to understand and find their own solutions to their problems. This paper reports on an approach that was designed and used to work with a local grass roots organization in the Solomon Islands to promote inclusivity and participation in decision-making and to build the capacity of the organization to reduce the vulnerability of communities to drivers of change. The process involved working collaboratively with the organization and training its members to conduct vulnerability assessments with communities using participatory and deliberative methods. To make best use of the learning opportunities provided by the research process, specific periods for formal reflection were incorporated for the three key stakeholders involved: the primary researchers; research assistants; and community members. Overall, the approach: (1) promoted learning about the current situation in Kahua and encouraged deeper analysis of problems; (2) built capacity for communities to manage the challenges they were facing; and (3) fostered local ownership and responsibility for problems and set precedents for future participation in decision-making. While the local organization and the communities it serves still face significant challenges, the research approach set the scene for greater local participation and effort to maintain and enhance livelihoods and wellbeing. The outcomes highlight the need for greater emphasis on embedding participatory approaches in vulnerability assessments for communities to benefit fully from the process.  相似文献   

我国气象服务效益评估业务的现状与展望   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

姚秀萍  吕明辉  范晓青  王静  王丽娟 《气象》2010,36(7):62-68

气象服务是气象事业的出发点和归宿点,因而采用科学客观的方法开展气象服务效益的评估工作,有利于气象部门更好地改进和完善气象服务,促进气象事业的持续快速发展。本文介绍了我国气象服务效益评估业务的现状,并对气象服务效益评估业务的未来发展趋势进行了构想,指出规范化、常态化、人性化服务是未来气象服务效益评估业务的发展趋势。  相似文献   

国家气象中心业务数值预报发展的回顾与展望   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

闫之辉  王雨  朱国富 《气象》2010,36(7):26-32

本文回顾了国家气象中心建立数值预报业务以来,国家级业务数值预报系统,主要是中、短期预报系统的发展历程,评估了目前业务数值预报的预报水平和基本特点,简述了我国业务数值预报发展的不同阶段取得的主要进展。通过对目前我国业务数值预报发展中存在的问题和不足的分析,讨论下一步的工作重点,并对未来的发展做初步展望。  相似文献